'05 Setback, '06 Rebound

With the two recent hurricanes hitting the US in its most vulnerable spot — our carbon fuel supply, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that there are going to be some cutbacks and as well as setbacks. There will probably be a rise in unemployment in the short run. I am sure that this will somehow be blamed on Bush and his magical powers that he uses to control hurricanes, but that is a different subject. So, there will be setbacks in the short run, but there will be a rebound. Jobs will be created due to the reconstruction process, and those affected will have the ability to get back on their feet. Hopefully the growth that was predicted before the hurricanes will only be postponed and not eliminated. It's interesting to look back in history and see the effects of natural disasters. For the most part, there are immediate setbacks and growth is hampered in the short run, but the market bounces back and usually will compensate for the loss and will reverse itself shortly thereafter. What do you guys think?


Mia said...

I agree that we will eventually rebound from this mess. Throughout history the U.S. has been faced with many natural disasters and in the end we have rebounded. There's no reason to assume this will happen again.

Dr. Tufte said...

Rebound - yes, we always have.

But, there is an element of the broken window fallacy in your argument. This is the idea that it is good for (say) a vandal to break a window because that creates work for others to clean up. Hurricanes do the same thing, but it shouldn't sound like Jasmine's argument is solid all the way through when I put in those terms.