Dissent on Recessions end

After reading this article in the New York Times Mr. Robert J. Gordon is saying the recession ended in the second quarter of 2009. Is this correct? His colleagues have came out stating that the recession that started in 2007 is not yet over. These gentleman our on the National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee which determines the start and end dates of recessions. Why has Mr. Robert J. Gordon came out and made this statement when he’s colleagues our saying that the recession is not over? Here is some of the data Mr. Robert J. Gordon is going off real GDP has recovered strongly from a trough in the second quarter of 2009 to current quarter which is close to the peak it was at in 2007. Mr. Robert J. Gordon is going off of a private organizations data that has been pretty accurate over the past estimating real GDP changes a quarter or two in advance. Should we believe this information?


Willy said...

I know that recessions happen every so often by the nature of our economy. I also think that the idea that things are turning bad quickly and its time to panic is a self fulfilling prophicy. I am begining to wonder if recoveries are as well. I have read that confidence is down slightly and after all people as a whole must believe that things are getting better before they actually can. Maybe Robert J Gordon is trying to help boost confidence and if people believe the economy is recovering it will be soon after.

Menger said...

It will be interesting to see how the layoffs related to increased costs from the recently passed health care bill will affect the recovery.

Elijah said...

There is substantial evidance that housing and elective medical procedures picked up at about that same time.

Dr. Tufte said...

-1 on Willy for a spelling error.

Ooh Victoria, this is where you need me to comment in a more timely manner.

Gordon pretty much taught most of the people on the NBER committee all they needed to know about business cycles. So, he's definitely a go-to guy.

Dr. Tufte said...

-1 on Victoria for poor capitalization too.