I have never really liked Black Friday. I don’t like the crowds, the crazies, or the
early morning lines. It is, however, interesting
to view it from a management/economic perspective. It used to be that the retailers were
participating in a simultaneous, one-shot game for Black Friday each year. They would all publish their ads in the
newspaper on Thanksgiving and hope their products would be in-demand and their
prices would be the best thus creating a long, long, line out their front door
that began forming at some unearthly hour in the morning. My experience at that point was that I would
wait in this line, freezing my toes off, just to get into the store to find
that the item I was hoping to purchase was sold out after 20 people entered the
store.
Retailers now seem to be trying to change the timing and order
of moves, creating a sequential-move game. According to Black Friday and Beyond: The ultimate holiday shopping guide, an article by CNN money, retailers are already releasing information
about deals to be had on Black Friday. It
seems that retailers are hoping that by releasing sale information early they
may be able to create first-mover advantages yielding higher pay-offs. This strategy, along with increased “pre-sales
and teaser ads”, Thanksgiving Day, and Cyber Monday deals, may help some
retailers grab a larger piece of the estimated $369 average to be spent per consumer
this year. As for me, I’ll be keeping my
toes toasty warm and will be spending my Black Friday with a book and my family.
I hope you all have a safe and happy Thanksgiving weekend as well, no matter
how you choose to spend it.
1 comment:
CChilds: 100/100
I like the observation that there maybe some strategy changing going on here.
Black Friday is an example of a topic I stress more than texts tend to: the elasticity of novelty. I think that in some ways the behavior of shoppers has to be more inelastic on Black Friday than on other days: sort of, we're here and therefore we've got to buy something. There are actually lots of examples of people buying things, and paying mark-ups consistent with inelastic demand, just for the novelty: it's been 40 years, and still the "pet rock" fad is fairly well-known across America.
One of the things that I wonder about Black Friday, and to my knowledge there's no research on this because the data is closely held, is to what extent it is truly profitable. Measuring that would need to account for two things: 1) it seems to me that the Black Friday sales mean that there's a shift to high volume low margin, and it's not clear that increases profits, and 2) to what extent are purchases that would just be made elsewhere in the holiday season just shifted to Black Friday?
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