3/30/2009

Is Inflation the Answer?!?

In the March 30, 2009 issue of the Wall Street Journal, an article entitled, "Inflation Is Tempting for Indebted Nations", discusses the implication that inflation can have on a country which is heavily indebted. The United States is considering using inflation to reduce the value of the U.S. dollar, which would significantly reduce the burden of money owed to other countries. Economists are saying that it would be "epic, a terrible thing to do" but it would be better than outright default. The United States is planning to increase the money supply by more than $1 trillion with the hope of causing some inflation to weaken the value of the dollar and reduce the current federal deficit. Some are concerned with the idea and speculate that this will cause hyperinflation, comparing the current situation to that of the 1920s Germany and the 2000s Zimbabwe in which the local currency was debased and hyperinflation followed. Most economists are saying that this "doomsday" is possible but extremely unlikely. Policy makers will be trying to stimulate some inflation but will be closely monitoring it to prevent it from getting out of hand. While I agree that hyperinflation is not a likely possibility, I am concerned about investing and the stock market. As the dollar weakens, the amount of consumer confidence could fall, causing the stock market to continue to plummet. On the other hand, the burden of debt, which in the U.S. rests heavily on the taxpayers, would be lightened and nominal wages, house prices and tax revenues would increase while mortgage and bond debt would remain constant.

5 comments:

Calvin said...

Is it just me or does that sound crazy!! I never thought I'd actually see the day when the government would consider turning to inflation to solve its problems! As far as whether it would work or not I dare not take a venture to guess, but surely there must be some other solution to what has to be done!

Luke said...

Inflation for us is never really a good thing, but here is a sideways look at it. Summer is coming up and people like to travel to other countries. People like to go places where their dollar goes a little further. If there was this “planned” inflation it could promote people from Europe or Japan to come and spend their traveling dollars here. This could increase tourism in the United States. It could help increase the flow of money into the US, but could in turn maybe decrease the spending from Americans which may make it a wash and will the government be able to reverse what they have done. It may be as simple as taking money out of the general flow, but sometimes things are never really that simple.

Caleb said...

I agree with Calvin. I think inflation is the result of choices and how the market moves. But I think it should always stay that way. Just a result. Not a tool to fix our financial problems. I am only 26 and am already amazed that candy bars that cost 50 cents when I was young are already past double at $1.17. Inflations sucks. I realize that sounds uneducated. But it's true.

Dr. Tufte said...

This is a realistic issue to think about, but not one to worry too much about. The income that the government "earns" from this sort of activity is important enough to get covered in principles texts. so it isn't like it is hidden.

But, it isn't much of issue for the U.S. because such a huge amount of our Federal debt is held by other Federal agencies. Most countries are not in this position, so their devaluation is much bigger deal than ours would be.

Even so, the idea that the government can "make money" by devaluing its currency - a process known as seigneurage - is an important one. The difference between how economists think about this and pundits, is that economists think about how to optimize your seigneurage given other constraints. People who are not economists tend to think seigneurage is a free lunch for the government; this is akin to thinking that monopolies can always be profitable. It sounds very plausible if you don't think too deeply about it. With seigneurage, there is considerable evidence that governments inflate their economies optimally.

Dr. Tufte said...

P.S. Inflation does suck. I am just old enough to remember the transition from candy bars costing 10 cents to 15 cents.